Apple Investment: A Victim of Its Own Success

Fri, Apr 6, 2012

One of our contrarian investment mantras is: great expectations always lead to great disappointments.

The herd always believes it’s different this time with each new market darling. They are never right.

Apple Investment: A Victim of Its Own Success

The current market darling is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). And earlier this week we warned the “it’s different this time crowd” should be getting prepared because another headwind could seriously reduce the value of Apple Investments.

Bloomberg reports in Apple Mac Computers Hit in Hacker Attack:

More than 600,000 Apple Inc. (AAPL) Mac computers were affected by a hacking attack, a sign that the once rarely targeted company is becoming a bigger focus for people intent on spreading malware, a security-research firm [Doctor Web] said.

Macs have historically been an unappealing hacking target because of their low market share. Instead, criminals have attacked personal computers running Microsoft’s Windows software, seeking the biggest number of victims for illicit moneymaking schemes. Windows runs on more than 90 percent of the world’s desktop computers, according to market researcher Net Applications.

The attack that Doctor Web analyzed is an especially harmful variety that infects computers without user interaction. To get hit, users just need to visit a poisoned webpage and the infection happens silently in the background. The vulnerability that allows the attack to take place exists in Java, the widely used programming language for building web pages.

Although we’re not declaring viruses are going to bring down the mighty Apple, its incredible brand, and its reputation.

Apple has reached a point where investors expect nothing to go wrong. Apple investment expectations from the company’s earnings to margins to growth are just as high.

It’s another case of great expectations. And within a few months we expect a great (and costly) disappointment.

Buy value, not popularity.

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