The Most Important Election Poll You Never Heard About
Thu, Sep 27, 2012
Several Important Election
The Election is just over six weeks away.
The candidates are unwilling to offer up to many specifics for fear of spin from their competitor and the media.
It’s a great opportunity for high-minded idiots to call for a higher level of political discourse, yet is more of an indication of what the candidates think of the voters than they’re character.
But without much policy debate to talk about, the top headlines surround the state of the horse race. And that means polls.
Inaccurate, flawed, and easily biased. Polls are polls. And they don’t reveal much about the eventual election.
But they’re something to talk about now. Otherwise they’re nearly completely useless.
Your editor recently came across some recent polling information which is actually important (Yes, an important poll!).
Most of its worth, however, is thoroughly demonstrating how worthless the current polls are and future ones will be.
You see, all of the polls are based on the respondents being completely honest.
They are not honest. Well, at least they’re not intentionally dishonest.
And here’s the poll that proves why.
Buried on page 57 of this Pew Research survey found that an astonishing 97% of registered voters polled “plan to vote” and 89% of them all were “absolutely certain” to vote.
We sure most of the respondents genuinely believe they will vote. Or at least they believe they should tell a stranger, “Of course, I’m going to vote,” lest they be thought of as less than ideal citizen.
However, the facts show they are seriously overestimating themselves.
Historical voting records show the average turnout for registered voters was 64.6% between 1976 and 2006 (most current data publicly available).
The 97% claim is also far higher than even the best years. The Highest Federal Election turnout rate was in 1992 when 78% of registered voters voted.
These numbers show the polls are a complete joke.
Our advice, don’t waste your time. Spend your time finding the best investments that will do well whoever wins and get ready to move after election day in the case if Romney wins (Sell Health Insurance stocks – who do you think Obamacare really benefits?) and if Obama wins (buy gun stocks for a super bubble).
Visit Conrarianinsights.com for more information political points
Executive Editor, Contrarian Insights
The Group of Big Investors in United States.
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